全球風險管理專業(yè)人士協(xié)會(GARP)致力于為風險管理條線上的各級人員，包括各大金融機構的風險從業(yè)者和監(jiān)管機構人員提供風險教育和最新行業(yè)資金程網(wǎng)校將持續(xù)轉載“GARP Risk Intelligence”系列文章，介紹科技、企業(yè)文化與治理、能源等領域對操作風險、信用風險、市場風險和資產(chǎn)負債管理的影響。讓我們一起全面認識風險，防范風險，化解風險。
根據(jù)指數(shù)和風險分析巨頭摩根士丹利資本國際指數(shù)(Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI)的數(shù)據(jù)，歷來著重于企業(yè)發(fā)行人披露的環(huán)境、社會和治理(ESG)管理正將目光更多地轉向投資者。
摩根士丹利資本國際指數(shù)1月份的一份報告稱“ESG投資業(yè)務管理”是2019年ESG的幾大發(fā)展趨勢 (ESG Trends to Watch)之一。“人們不再滿足于只有發(fā)行公司制定ESG相關的披露機制。我們預計投資者——無論是資產(chǎn)所有者還是資產(chǎn)管理者——都將看到不斷升級的監(jiān)管需求。監(jiān)管機構正在加大對主要發(fā)行人的審查力度，它們的ESG投資業(yè)務則是重點觀察對象。”
該報告由MSCI全球ESG研究負責人Linda-Eling Lee和ESG研究執(zhí)行董事Matt Moscardi聯(lián)合撰寫。報告指出2018年提出的170多項監(jiān)管或準監(jiān)管措施中，80%針對機構投資者。例如，歐盟委員會建議”投資顧問直接詢問客戶可持續(xù)發(fā)展偏好(Sustainability preferences)”，并在評估和推薦金融工具和保險產(chǎn)品時將其考慮在內(nèi)。
他們得出的結論是，2019年的監(jiān)管將不再只針對發(fā)行人的ESG信息披露，還將進一步關注ESG投資升級。對于過去那些僅僅把ESG視作一個狹隘的話題，進行簡單的多元化投資或者提供幾個主題產(chǎn)品的投資機構而言，2019年應該是奮起直追的一年。對投資者角色和責任的衡量將迫使機構在制定投資策略時更全面地考慮ESG相關的投資風險，并著手解決。
Linda-Eling Lee說：“我們的目標是提振終端投資者的信心，確保他們向特定產(chǎn)品支付的投資資金能夠如市場宣傳一樣被應用于可持續(xù)發(fā)展上。如果我們能很好地做到這一點，那么將進一步提升信心和透明度，從而支持ESG領域的持續(xù)增長”。
另一場”貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)“
In the report and an accompanying blog, Lee and Moscardi headlined four other trends: The Other Trade War: Plastic Waste; The Not-So-Distant Future for Climate Risk; The Big Signal Revolution, referring to big data and new investment analytics; and Leadership in the Age of Transparency.
The last two refer, respectively, to new investment analytics stemming from big data; and culture, conduct and related customer-backlash and headline risks.
“The age of transparency means there are fewer and fewer places for questionable corporate practices and even personal conduct to hide,” the MSCI researchers said.
“Investors are starting to insist that, while the parade of CEOs behaving badly may be difficult to predict and avoid, replacing them and cleaning house in the wake of a scandal should not be.”
The report said that a trade war other than the U.S.-China confrontation – surrounding waste – is beginning to unfold, touched off by China's decision to stop accepting solid waste from other countries in 2018, the report said. “How the world addresses the disruption it creates will have ripple effects across multiple industries and countries, ripping the issue from the pages of glossy sustainability reports and thrusting it into investor presentations and financial filings as a subject of business risks and opportunities.”
氣候變化經(jīng)濟學
Moscardi observed that “there are more investors emerging who are hedging or arbitraging how climate will affect things”. Some real estate investors may already be facing the consequences of flood zones or sea-level rise.
In Florida, according to MSCI research, “51% of the assets find themselves in the vanguard of rising seas representing approximately $10 billion in capital value,” the report said. “But examining the properties by asset construction dates is even more alarming. If ‘high’ to ‘moderate’ flood-risk zones are likely to be inundated by sea-level rise in 2040, we can see that approximately one in five of these mapped commercial assets was constructed in a flood-prone ZIP code after the year 2000, representing $4.4 billion in capital value.
“This means these properties will likely be affected by sea-level risebefore the end of their usable life, using the average lifespan of a commercial property estimated at 50 years.”
Beyond real estate, “the U.S. National Climate Assessment report issued in November 2018 directly linked recent extreme weather events to changes in the climate, and projects that the economic impact from climate change could be double the impact of the Great Recession . . . While private assets like real estate may be the tip of the spear, eventually all assets may have to be judged by the same question: Where are the winners and losers in my portfolio?”
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