國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁近期針對國際經濟的談話引人關注。4月2日，克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)向美國商會發(fā)表了一篇題為“全球經濟處于微妙時刻”的講話，談到由于英國脫歐、國際貿易緊張局勢和其他下行風險，今年的增長預測越來越“不穩(wěn)定”。
拉加德還利用這一機會強調另一個風險來源：“國際貨幣資金組織加強了對腐敗的關注，特別是其可能對成員國宏觀經濟產生的影響。”她指出，僅賄賂的年成本就超過1.5萬億美元，大約相當于全球GDP的2%。洗錢和恐怖主義融資是問題的其他重要方面。國際貨幣基金組織在這一領域與100 多個國家開展了合作。
國際貨幣組織最新研究突顯了腐敗帶來的高財政成本。腐敗導致公共收入大量損失和公共支出質量下降。這項新的分析證實了長期以來的猜測：腐敗會降低經濟增長率。它會加劇不平等并助長不信任。為有效打擊腐敗，需要開展國際合作。
對經濟增長的影響
“Our latest research underlines the high fiscal cost of corruption, leading to a massive loss in public revenue and lower-quality public spending,” Lagarde added. “This new analysis confirms what we had all long suspected: Corruption lowers growth. It increases inequality. It feeds distrust.”
Conversely, citing the fund’s April 2019 Fiscal Monitor, Lagarde said, “We estimate that within a group of similar economies, less corruption is associated with higher tax revenues – in fact, a very significant difference of up to 4 percentage points of GDP between countries. Better governance is also associated with higher student test scores and more efficient spending on vital infrastructure: from roads, to schools, to hospitals.
“This highlights the potentially huge benefit of curbing corruption – and not only fiscal benefit, but also the potential benefit to society at large.”
國際性問題
She held out hope that “the right policy responses can make a significant difference.”
A recent update to the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index showed that two-thirds of all countries score below 50 (100 = very clean), “indicating that they have serious problems in preventing corruption,” Lagarde said. “Certainly, countries must accept responsibility for what happens within their own borders. But corruption is an international plague. To fight it effectively requires international lcooperation.”
That led to a broader point about the IMF and international policy cooperation: “During the global financial crisis,” Lagarde said, “the fund was able to commit over $500 billion to help prevent another Great Depression. In the decade since, we supported economic programs in over 90 countries . . . Consider the fund’s advice to countries to help them open up their markets and encourage investment,” and “recent support for critical country programs in Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan. Think about Ukraine. Or Argentina.”
She said she was confident that support from the 189 IMF member countries “remains strong” as the IMF-World Bank spring meetings approached, the week of April 8.
防范措施
Also on Lagarde’s mind: “increasing concentration of market power by a few corporate giants” and a “winner-takes-most dynamic,” especially in the digital economy, where a small number of companies account for the highest price mark-ups.
“I am not saying that we currently have a ‘monopoly problem,’” the IMF chief said. “But I am saying that we should take appropriate measures – so that it does not become a problem.
“That means reducing barriers to entry for new firms and reforming competition frameworks to ensure a level playing field in all sectors, whether traditional or high-tech.”
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