litongxue
2025-10-23 23:01我對原版書課后的一道題有問題： Li’s team also examines survey data projecting the future performance of the consumer credit and telecommunications industries over the same time period for which the actual performance data was collected. They found that projections in the survey data tended to be more volatile than the actual performance data. However, Li’s team decided not to make any adjustments to the survey data because a definitive procedure could not be determined. 我認(rèn)為是Status Quo Bias，但是答案是ex post risk as a biased measure of ex anti risk。 麻煩老師幫我解答一下，謝謝
所屬：CFA Level III > Asset Allocation 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
來源： 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
1個回答
Vincent助教
2025-10-26 14:52
該回答已被題主采納
你好
Status Quo Bias的核心是"避免改變的心理傾向"，例如，因習(xí)慣或惰性而拒絕調(diào)整流程。
而Li團隊比較了調(diào)查預(yù)測（ex ante）和實際數(shù)據(jù)（ex post），發(fā)現(xiàn)預(yù)測更波動。如果他們根據(jù)ex post數(shù)據(jù)的波動性強行調(diào)整ex ante預(yù)測，相當(dāng)于用事后結(jié)果"反向修正"事前預(yù)期。這是不對的，實際結(jié)果受到預(yù)測時未知的隨機事件影響（如經(jīng)濟危機、政策變化），而預(yù)測無法完全涵蓋這些因素。但這不意味著預(yù)測本身有誤。
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