岳同學(xué)
2019-12-13 12:01老師在課堂上說(shuō)到 slowdown phase in the economic cycle. Bond yield is likely inverted. 在reading 10 中 practice problem 第8題: "Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:" A. invert. B. flatten. C. steepen. C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase. 請(qǐng)問(wèn)為什麼不能選 A? 謝謝
所屬：CFA Level III > Equity Portfolio Management 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
來(lái)源： 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
1個(gè)回答
Dean助教
2019-12-13 16:36
該回答已被題主采納
同學(xué)你好，請(qǐng)注意表格中的信息，表頭是預(yù)期接下來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)階段Y國(guó)是contractionary ，那就意味著投資者會(huì)更多的配置債券，尤其是長(zhǎng)期債券（基于長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期），從而使得長(zhǎng)期債券價(jià)格上升，而收益率曲線(xiàn)繼續(xù)向下，在經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇之前是變得最為陡峭的。
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追問(wèn)
長(zhǎng)期債卷價(jià)格上升代表長(zhǎng)端收益率下降，短期利率在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張後期不是應(yīng)該是peaking ， 那長(zhǎng)期利收益率下降，短期上升，那應(yīng)該收益率曲線(xiàn)會(huì)inverted?
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追答
同學(xué)你好，你這里理解的也沒(méi)錯(cuò)，但是你說(shuō)的是上一個(gè)階段slowdown，在這個(gè)階段，短期利率達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)peak，而長(zhǎng)端利率是下降的。所以可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)flatten，甚至invert。到這里你理解的沒(méi)問(wèn)題。
但是這道題涉及兩個(gè)階段，根據(jù)主人公的描述，該國(guó)當(dāng)前是slowdown，所以短期利率不會(huì)再上升了達(dá)到peak，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了contraction的特征，就意味著短期利率會(huì)下降，所以是steepen
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