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2022-04-18 00:22請(qǐng)問課后題reading23 第28題的A選項(xiàng)怎么理解呢？abc公司如果成為takeover candidate的話未來cf應(yīng)該是沒有辦法predict的吧？所以statement1應(yīng)該也是正確的吧？就不適合用fcf valuation modle？
所屬：CFA Level II > Equity Valuation 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
來源： 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
1個(gè)回答
開開助教
2022-04-18 16:38
該回答已被題主采納
同學(xué)你好，對(duì)于收購(gòu)目標(biāo)公司如何估值是在公司金融部分由詳細(xì)的講解。即使公司成為了target company，我們也可以用FCF折現(xiàn)模型對(duì)公司進(jìn)行估值的，只要我們把合并帶來的協(xié)同效應(yīng)和成本結(jié)構(gòu)等變化體現(xiàn)出來即可。
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追問
那么請(qǐng)問即將成為target company 的公司 哪種估值方法不能用??？哪種估值方法有最適合呢？我記得老師上課好想講過但我找不到在那里講的了????
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追答
一共有三種方法，都有優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)的。同學(xué)可以參考下面總結(jié)的內(nèi)容。同學(xué)也可以去公司金融基礎(chǔ)課部分R23 Mergers and Acquisitions的Target Company Valuation部分復(fù)習(xí)以下。
1、Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Advantages：優(yōu)點(diǎn)
? Expected changes in the target company’s cash flows. 目標(biāo)公司現(xiàn)金流量的預(yù)期變化
? An estimate of intrinsic value based on forecast fundamentals is provided by the model. 該模型基于預(yù)測(cè)的基本面信息給出內(nèi)在價(jià)值的估計(jì)
? Changes in assumptions and estimates can be incorporated by customizing and modifying the mode. 假設(shè)和估計(jì)的更改可以包含自定義和修改的模式
? Disadvantages：缺點(diǎn)
? It is difficult to apply when free cash flows do not align with profitability within the first stage. 當(dāng)自由現(xiàn)金流與第一階段的盈利能力不相符時(shí)，就很難適用，即自由現(xiàn)金流是負(fù)值時(shí)，無法使用
? Estimating cash flows and earnings far into the future is not an exact science. 估算遙遠(yuǎn)未來的現(xiàn)金流和收益并不是一門精確的科學(xué)，即未來現(xiàn)金流和盈利的估計(jì)會(huì)有誤差
? Estimates of discount rates can change over time. 對(duì)折現(xiàn)率的估計(jì)可能會(huì)隨著時(shí)間而變化
? Terminal value estimates often subject the acquisition value calculations to a disproportionate degree of estimate error. 終值估計(jì)常常受不成比例的估計(jì)誤差而主觀影響收購(gòu)價(jià)值的計(jì)算 -
追答
2、Comparable Company Analysis
? Advantages：優(yōu)點(diǎn)
? A reasonable approximation of a target company’s value relative to similar companies in the market. 目標(biāo)公司的估值是市場(chǎng)上同類公司的估值的合理的近似值
? Most of the required data are readily available. 所需的數(shù)據(jù)大部分都是現(xiàn)成的（容易獲得數(shù)據(jù)）
? The estimates of value are derived directly from the market. 價(jià)值估計(jì)直接來自市場(chǎng)
? Disadvantages：缺點(diǎn)
? The method is sensitive to market mispricing. 該方法對(duì)市場(chǎng)的錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)很敏感
? In order to estimate a fair takeover price, analysts must additionally estimate a fair takeover premium and use that information to adjust the estimated stock price. 為了估計(jì)一個(gè)公允的收購(gòu)價(jià)格，分析師必須額外估計(jì)一個(gè)公允的收購(gòu)溢價(jià)，并利用這些信息來調(diào)整估計(jì)的股價(jià)
? The analysis may be inaccurate because it is difficult for the analyst to incorporate any specific plans for the target. 分析可能是不準(zhǔn)確的，因?yàn)榉治鰩熢诜治鲋须y以結(jié)合目標(biāo)公司的任何特定計(jì)劃，例如資本結(jié)構(gòu)的改變
? The data available for past premiums may not be accurate for the particular target company under consideration. 對(duì)于所考慮的特定目標(biāo)公司而言，過去溢價(jià)可用數(shù)據(jù)可能不準(zhǔn)確，即過去可比公司的溢價(jià)不一定適合目標(biāo)公司當(dāng)前的狀況 -
追答
3、Comparable Transaction Analysis
Advantages：優(yōu)點(diǎn)
? It is not necessary to separately estimate a takeover premium. 沒有必要單獨(dú)估算收購(gòu)溢價(jià)
? The takeover value estimates come directly from values that were recently established in the market. 收購(gòu)價(jià)的估計(jì)直接來自最近在市場(chǎng)上實(shí)際存在的估值
? The use of prices established through other recent transactions reduces litigation risk for both companies’ board of directors and managers regarding the merger transaction’s pricing. 使用近期的交易價(jià)格，降低了兩家公司董事會(huì)和管理層關(guān)于兼并交易定價(jià)的訴訟風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
? Disadvantages：缺點(diǎn)
? There is a risk that the real takeover values in past transactions were not accurate. 在過去的交易中，真實(shí)的收購(gòu)價(jià)值存在不準(zhǔn)確的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
? There may not be any, or an adequate number of, comparable transactions to use for calculating the takeover value. 可能沒有任何或者足夠數(shù)量的可比較交易用于計(jì)算收購(gòu)價(jià)值
? The analysis may be inaccurate because it is difficult for the analyst to incorporate any specific plans for the target. 分析可能是不準(zhǔn)確的，因?yàn)榉治鰩熢诜治鲋须y以結(jié)合目標(biāo)公司的任何特定計(jì)劃，例如資本結(jié)構(gòu)的改變
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