宇同學
2022-12-30 21:56Suppose the prospects for recovering principal for a defaulted bond issue depend on which of two economic scenarios prevails. Scenario 1 has probability 0.75 and will result in recovery of $0.90 per $1 principal value with probability 0.45, orin recovery of $0.80 per $1 principal value with probability 0.55. Scenario 2 has probability 0.25 and will result in recovery of $0.50 per $1 principal value with probability 0.85, or in recovery of $0.40 per $1 principal value with probability 0.15. A. Compute the probability of each of the four possible recovery amounts: $0.90, $0.80, $0.50, and $0.40. B. Compute the expected recovery, given the first scenario. C. Compute the expected recovery, given the second scenario. D. Compute the expected recovery. E. Graph the information in a probability tree diagram. 圖為我做題的過程，B、C、D這三問題，算出來的結(jié)果跟答案不一樣？我到底錯在哪個地方？
所屬：CFA Level I > Quantitative Methods 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
來源： 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
1個回答
Evian, CFA助教
2023-01-03 13:45
該回答已被題主采納
ヾ(?°?°?)??你好同學，
B和C都是在一定條件下求期望。（計算過程如下圖所示）
例如B是在first scenario成立的條件下，計算期望。first scenario既然已經(jīng)成立，那么計算就不考慮75%和25%。
同理C。
D是考慮first scenario和second scenario兩種情況下的期望，此時要考慮75%和25%。
D所求概率=B和C所求概率之和。
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