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金程教育顧老師助教
2017-05-26 16:49
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學員你好，
First, 使用全概率公式，calculate the unconditional probability for a cut in dividends:
P(Cut div)=P(Cut div | EPS exceed)×P(EPS exceed)+P(Cut div | EPS equal)×P(EPS equal)+P(Cut blow | EPS exceed)×P(EPS blow)
=(0.05x0.25)+(O.10x0.055)+(0.85x0,20)=0.2375
再使用貝葉斯公式， update the probability of EPS falling below the consensus as:
P(EPS below | Cut div)=P(Cut div | EPS blow)/ P(Cut div) × P(EPS blow)
=(0.85/0.2375)×0.20=0.71579=72%
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