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金程教育顧老師助教
2017-05-31 13:36
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學(xué)員你好，問(wèn)題翻譯成數(shù)學(xué)公式就是，已知P(ratio<0|decline in EPS)=70%，P(ratio<0|not decline in EPS)=20%，P(decline in EPS)=10%，問(wèn)P(decline in EPS|ratio<0)。先由全概率公式P(ratio<0)=P(ratio<0|decline in EPS)P(decline in EPS)+P(ratio<0|not decline in EPS)P(not decline in EPS)=70%*10%+20%*(1-10%)=25%，由bayes公式，P(decline in EPS|ratio<0)=P(ratio<0|decline in EPS)*P(decline in EPS)/P(ratio<0)=70%*10%/25%=28%
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