Robyn
2023-12-10 00:24A disadvantage of the leading indicators–based approach is that historically, it has not consistently worked because relationships between inputs are not static. An advantage to the econometric approach is that it provides quantitative estimates of the effects on the economy of changes in exogenous variables. ——為什么not static就會(huì)導(dǎo)致not consistently worked呢？
所屬：CFA Level III > Capital Market Expectations 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
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1個(gè)回答
Johnny助教
2023-12-10 17:40
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同學(xué)你好。Leading indicator的缺陷如下：經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)經(jīng)常被修正、可能給出錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)測(cè)信號(hào)、只能給出yes or no之類的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，；例如它只能預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)是好轉(zhuǎn)還是惡化，但是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)究竟會(huì)增長(zhǎng)到什么程度。
而relationships between input是計(jì)量模型的缺點(diǎn)，這通常是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化，或者是模型對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的假設(shè)出錯(cuò)所導(dǎo)致的
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