AQF關(guān)注丨據(jù)彭博社報道，JP Morgan摩根大通策略師科拉諾維奇說，有偏見的新聞媒體、政治機會主義者和渴望出人頭地的分析師，以及美國總統(tǒng)的twitter及其政府，正在把股市推入一種瘋狂境地。這種瘋狂超出了經(jīng)濟或盈利基本面所能證明的任何合理范圍。
路聞卓立參考彭博社、CNBC、PS等信息來源做出呼吁，首先理解人們關(guān)注信息的模式，再做出合理的判斷，指導(dǎo)投資。
圖片：摩根大通分析師科拉諾維奇(Marko Kolanovic)
來自：CNBC
Bloomberg: Fake and Bad News Is Depressing Market, JPM’s Kolanovic Says
CNBC: Why are markets so volatile? JP Morgan's quant guru thinks 'fake news' is to blame
Project Syndicate: Is Fake News Here to Stay?
科拉諾維奇Kolanovic是摩根大通宏觀定量和衍生品研究全球主管。摩根大通分析師周五公布了2019年的展望。強勁的企業(yè)利潤增長和消費者支出預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟擴張并未即將結(jié)束，而未來的市盈率預(yù)測和機構(gòu)股權(quán)持有水平接近五年低點。他在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中有3,100個目標(biāo)，比目前的水平增加了17%。
Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, was among the JPM analysts who published a year-ahead outlook on Friday. Strong corporate profit growth and consumer spending signal that the economic expansion isn't about to end, in contrast to future price-earnings estimates and institutional equity holding levels near five-year lows, Kolanovic wrote Friday in a 2019 outlook note. He has a 3,100 target on the S&P 500, which would be a 17 percent increase from current levels.
圖片：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)
來源：CNBC
盡管有積極的背景，最近一周，基準(zhǔn)股指下跌4.6%，至2,633點，為3月以來最大跌幅，今年以來累計下跌1.5%。過去三周，美國股市在至少3%的漲跌之間搖擺不定，這是10年前全球金融危機中從未出現(xiàn)過的波動。
Despite the positive backdrop, the benchmark stock index sank 4.6 percent in the latest week, to 2,633 points, its biggest decline since March, and is down 1.5 percent for the year to date. In the past three weeks, U.S. stocks have lurched between between gains and losses of at least 3 percent, volatility not seen such the global financial crisis a decade ago.
“在某種程度上，我們將負(fù)面情緒與宏觀經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)實之間的脫節(jié)，歸咎于真假負(fù)面消息之間不斷的強化和反饋，” 以科拉諾維奇為首的策略師們寫道。
“To some extent, we trace the disconnect between negative sentiment and macroeconomic reality to the reinforcing feedback loop of real and fake negative news,” the strategists wrote.
他們看到很多因素在這個循環(huán)中起作用。
And they see a lot of factors playing into that loop.
這些策略師寫道:“國內(nèi)政治反對派可能有興趣描繪一幅負(fù)面的經(jīng)濟圖景，個別市場分析師通過看空獲得了更多的關(guān)注和報道，而外國對手則放大了負(fù)面新聞周期，以助長分歧，削弱人們對金融市場和經(jīng)濟的信心。”
“Domestic political opposition may have an interest to paint a negative economic picture, individual market analysts gain more visibility and coverage with negative calls, and foreign adversaries amplify a negative news cycle in order to foster divisions and erode confidence in financial markets and the economy,” the strategists wrote.
科拉諾維奇監(jiān)測情緒指標(biāo)，包括新聞報道中提到主題的頻率。他擔(dān)心的是，某些新聞媒體雖然表面上看起來可信，但也包含一些陰暗的內(nèi)容。
Kolanovic monitors sentiment indicators, including how often topics are mentioned in news reports. And he’s concerned with certain news outlets that, while presenting at least a veneer of credibility, also contain darker offerings.
科拉諾維奇寫道:“一些網(wǎng)站專門大量生產(chǎn)真實和虛假的新聞。”“通常情況下，這些媒體會對賣方金融研究提供一些真實但扭曲的報道，同時夾雜地緣政治新聞，網(wǎng)站同時容忍在其評論部分發(fā)表仇恨言論。”
“There are specialized websites that mass produce a mix of real and fake news,” Kolanovic wrote. “Often these outlets will present somewhat credible but distorted coverage of sell-side financial research, mixed with geopolitical news, while tolerating hate speech in their website commentary section.”
卡拉諾維奇補充道:“如果我們增加更多基于帖子和頭條的交易算法，對價格走勢和投資者心理的影響可能是巨大的。”
“If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant,” Kolanovic added.
該報告引述了華為CFO孟晚舟12月5日的逮捕事件，這一負(fù)面消息，首先引發(fā)了盤后股票期貨交易的動蕩，然后在本周剩余時間里對市場造成壓力。
The report cited the arrest reported on Dec. 5 of Wanzhou Meng, Huawei Technologies Co.’s chief financial officer, which first caused turmoil in after-hours stock futures trading and then weighed on markets for the rest of the week, as an example of such negative news.
此外，摩根大通表示，流動性下降正在放大市場波動。Kolanovic稱，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)期貨合約最近跌至紀(jì)錄低點。
Furthermore, a decline in liquidity is amplifying moves, according to JPMorgan. Market depth in S&P 500 Index futures contracts recently plunged to record lows, Kolanovic said.
此外，還有一個因素也加劇了這一局面：美國總統(tǒng)特朗普及其政府。
And there’s another factor exacerbating the picture, as well: President Donald Trump and his administration.
這些策略師寫道，白宮“提供了足夠多的材料(如twitter等)供這些參與者利用，以創(chuàng)造一個投資不確定的環(huán)境(如全球貿(mào)易、石油、單個公司的商業(yè)決策等問題)。”
The White House has “given more than enough material (e.g. tweets, etc.) to be exploited by these actors in order to create an environment of investment uncertainty (e.g., on issues of global trade, oil, business decisions of individual companies, etc.),” the strategists wrote.
特朗普持續(xù)地在推特上發(fā)大量信息，自從他當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)以來，他在推特上發(fā)布了35條有關(guān)股市的消息，但在過去一個月股市下跌的情況下，他對股市保持沉默。
The president continues to tweet prolifically, but after posting Twitter messages about the stock market more than 35 times since his election, he’s gone mum about stocks as markets have gone south in the past month.
人們?yōu)槭裁慈绱绥娗橛谪?fù)面消息?
進(jìn)化心理學(xué)的觀點中，人類更容易關(guān)注負(fù)面信息。因為在漫長的進(jìn)化過程中，只關(guān)注或更多關(guān)注正面信息的基因更容易被消滅，比如野獸吞噬，或遭遇不測，于是漸漸被自然淘汰。而更關(guān)注負(fù)面信息的基因留下來。在如今的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上，人類的這項本能卻成為被投機者利用的特點。
以下為哈佛大學(xué)教授Joseph Nye在Project Syndicate上發(fā)表的文章。文章稱，為了爭奪點擊率和收入，虛假新聞被炮制，負(fù)面新聞被放大。
由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供的大量信息不堪重負(fù)，人們發(fā)現(xiàn)很難知道應(yīng)該關(guān)注什么。注意力而不是信息成為稀缺資源。大數(shù)據(jù)和人工智能允許數(shù)據(jù)精細(xì)化，追蹤微觀目標(biāo)，以便人們接收的信息僅限于感興趣的“過濾后的泡沫”。
Overwhelmed with the sheer volume of information available online, people find it difficult to know what to focus on. Attention, rather than information, becomes the scarce resource to capture. Big data and artificial intelligence allow micro-targeting of communication so that the information people receive is limited to a “filter bubble” of the like-minded.
社交媒體提供的“免費”服務(wù)是基于一種盈利模式，其中用戶的信息和關(guān)注實際上是一種產(chǎn)品，被銷售給廣告商。算法旨在了解讓用戶參與的內(nèi)容，以便為他們提供更多廣告，并產(chǎn)生更多收入。
The “free” services offered by social media are based on a profit model in which users’ information and attention are actually the products, which are sold to advertisers. Algorithms are designed to learn what keeps users engaged so that they can be served more ads and produce more revenue.
諸如憤怒之類的情緒刺激了網(wǎng)絡(luò)參與度，而且令人憤慨但虛假的新聞，比準(zhǔn)確的新聞已經(jīng)被證明可以吸引更多的觀眾。一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，推特上的此類謊言被轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)的可能性，比準(zhǔn)確的新聞高出70%。同樣，今年早些時候在德國進(jìn)行的一項示威研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，YouTube的算法，系統(tǒng)地把用戶引向了極端主義內(nèi)容，因為這是“點擊率”和收入較高的地方。傳統(tǒng)新聞媒體的事實核查往往跟不上時代的不發(fā)，有時甚至適得其反，因為可能讓更多的人關(guān)注到虛假的新聞。
Emotions such as outrage stimulate engagement, and news that is outrageous but false has been shown to engage more viewers than accurate news. One study found that such falsehoods on Twitter were 70% more likely to be retweeted than accurate news.
Likewise, a study of demonstrations in Germany earlier this year found that YouTube’s algorithm systematically directed users toward extremist content because that was where the “clicks” and revenue were greatest. Fact checking by conventional news media is often unable to keep up, and sometimes can even be counterproductive by drawing more attention to the falsehood.
.png)
.png)
完善下表，48小時內(nèi)查收全套AQF備考資料
.jpg)
金程推薦： AQF培訓(xùn) AQF報名 AQF考試
AQF考試群：760229148
微信公眾號：量化金融分析師
