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紅杉資本致創(chuàng)始人和CEO 的警告信：2020黑天鵝就是......

黑天鵝

2008年，在最近一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中，硅谷知名風(fēng)險投資公司紅杉資本(Sequoia capital)在一個名為“R.I.P.Good Times”的報告中，為投資組合公司提供了有關(guān)情況有多糟糕的建議。

現(xiàn)在，該公司再次發(fā)出警報，告訴其投資組合公司的創(chuàng)始人和首席執(zhí)行官為惡化的情況做準(zhǔn)備。

與此同時，冠狀病毒還在繼續(xù)攪動美國和外國金融市場，導(dǎo)致上市公司采取措施，盡量減少對員工和企業(yè)的影響。備忘錄顯示，私人公司也可能受到影響。

該公司在備忘錄中說：“由于生命受到威脅，我們希望情況能盡快好轉(zhuǎn)。”“在過渡期間，我們應(yīng)該做好應(yīng)對動蕩的準(zhǔn)備，對可能出現(xiàn)的情況做好準(zhǔn)備。

該公司建議公司在疫情不斷上演的時候提出關(guān)鍵問題，包括他們是否需要削減員工數(shù)量，以及在營銷支出方面更加節(jié)儉。

紅杉公司成立于1972年，總部位于加州門洛帕克，是世界上最成功的風(fēng)險投資公司之一，曾投資于GitHub、谷歌、領(lǐng)英、英偉達(dá)、甲骨文、Square、YouTube和Zoom。

這份備忘錄并不像最初的“國際復(fù)興計劃”(R.I.P. Good Times)備忘錄那樣寬泛和籠統(tǒng)，而是更有針對性，更具體地建議初創(chuàng)企業(yè)應(yīng)該做些什么。特別是，它概述了一些問題，如“在不從根本上損害業(yè)務(wù)的情況下，你可以在哪里削減開支?”并建議仔細(xì)檢查員工人數(shù)和客戶獲取成本。

黑天鵝

those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.”能生存下來的人“不是較強(qiáng)大或最聰明的人，而是最能適應(yīng)變化的人。”

Here is a note that we sent to Sequoia founders and CEOs today to provide guidance on how to ensure the health of their business while dealing with potential business consequences of the spreading effects of the coronavirus.這是我們今天發(fā)送給紅杉資本創(chuàng)始人和首席執(zhí)行官的說明，以提供有關(guān)如何確保其業(yè)務(wù)健康同時應(yīng)對冠狀病毒傳播效應(yīng)的潛在業(yè)務(wù)后果的指導(dǎo)。

Dear Founders & CEOs, 親愛的創(chuàng)始人和CEO們

Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020. Some of you (and some of us) have already been personally impacted by the virus. We know the stress you are under and are here to help. With lives at risk, we hope that conditions improve as quickly as possible. In the interim, we should brace ourselves for turbulence and have a prepared mindset for the scenarios that may play out.冠狀病毒是2020年的黑天鵝。你們中的某些人(和我們中的某些人)已經(jīng)受到該病毒的個人影響。我們知道您承受的壓力，可以為您提供幫助。由于生命受到威脅，我們希望情況能盡快改善。在此期間，我們應(yīng)該為動蕩做好準(zhǔn)備，并為可能出現(xiàn)的情況做好準(zhǔn)備。

All of you have been inundated by suggestions for precautions to take around COVID-19 to protect the health and welfare of you, your employees, and your families. Like many, we have studied the available information and would be happy to share our point of view — please let us know if that is of interest. This note is about something else: ensuring the health of your business while dealing with potential business consequences of the spreading effects of the virus. 大家都被關(guān)于預(yù)防COVID-19的預(yù)防措施的建議所淹沒，以保護(hù)您，您的員工和家人的健康和福祉。像許多人一樣，我們已經(jīng)研究了可用的信息，并很樂意分享我們的觀點-請讓我們知道是否感興趣。本說明還涉及其他方面：確保企業(yè)的健康，同時應(yīng)對病毒傳播影響的潛在業(yè)務(wù)后果。

Unfortunately, because of Sequoia’s presence in many regions around the world, we are gaining first-hand knowledge of coronavirus’ effects on global business. As with all crises, there are some businesses that stand to benefit. However, many companies in frontline countries are facing challenges as a result of the virus outbreak, including: 不幸的是，由于紅杉遍及全球許多地區(qū)，因此我們獲得了關(guān)于冠狀病毒對全球業(yè)務(wù)影響的第一手資料。與所有危機(jī)一樣，有些企業(yè)也將從中受益。但是，由于病毒爆發(fā)，一線國家的許多公司都面臨挑戰(zhàn)，其中包括：

Drop in business activity. Some companies have seen their growth rates drop sharply between December and February. Several companies that were on track are now at risk of missing their Q1–2020 plans as the effects of the virus ripple wider.業(yè)務(wù)萎縮。一些公司已經(jīng)看到其增長率在12月至2月之間急劇下降。隨著病毒的波及范圍擴(kuò)大，一些進(jìn)展順利的公司現(xiàn)在有可能錯過其2020年第一季度計劃。

Supply chain disruptions. The unprecedented lockdown in China is directly impacting global supply chains. Hardware, direct-to-consumer, and retailing companies may need to find alternative suppliers. Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions, but remain at risk due to cascading economic effects.供應(yīng)鏈中斷。中前所未有的封鎖直接影響著全球供應(yīng)鏈。硬件，直接面向消費者和零售的公司可能需要尋找替代供應(yīng)商。純軟件公司較少受到供應(yīng)鏈中斷的影響，但由于級聯(lián)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響而仍然處于風(fēng)險之中。

Curtailment of travel and canceled meetings. Many companies have banned all “non-essential” travel and some have banned all international travel. While travel companies are directly impacted, all companies that depend on in-person meetings to conduct sales, business development, or partnership discussions are being affected.減少旅行和取消會議。許多公司禁止所有“非必要”旅行，而一些公司禁止所有國際旅行。雖然旅游公司受到直接影響，但所有依賴面對面會議進(jìn)行銷售，業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展或合伙關(guān)系討論的公司都受到影響。

It will take considerable time — perhaps several quarters — before we can be confident that the virus has been contained. It will take even longer for the global economy to recover its footing. Some of you may experience softening demand; some of you may face supply challenges. While The Fed and other central banks can cut interest rates, monetary policy may prove a blunt tool in alleviating the economic ramifications of a global health crisis.我們將需要相當(dāng)長的時間-可能需要幾個季度-才能確定該病毒已被遏制。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)基礎(chǔ)將需要更長的時間。你們中有些人的需求可能會減弱;你們中有些人可能會面臨供應(yīng)挑戰(zhàn)。盡管美聯(lián)儲和其他中央銀行可以降低利率，但貨幣政策可能被證明是緩解全球健康危機(jī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果的鈍器。

We suggest you question every assumption about your business, including:我們建議您質(zhì)疑有關(guān)您業(yè)務(wù)的所有假設(shè)，包括：

1.Cash runway. Do you really have as much runway as you think? Could you withstand a few poor quarters if the economy sputters? Have you made contingency plans? Where could you trim expenses without fundamentally hurting the business? Ask these questions now to avoid potentially painful future consequences.1現(xiàn)金跑道。你真的有你想的那么多跑道嗎?如果經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣，您能承受幾個貧困季度嗎?您是否制定了應(yīng)急計劃?在不從根本上損害業(yè)務(wù)的前提下，您可以在哪里削減開支?現(xiàn)在問這些問題，以避免將來可能帶來的痛苦。

2.Fundraising. Private financings could soften significantly, as happened in 2001 and 2009. What would you do if fundraising on attractive terms proves difficult in 2020 and 2021? Could you turn a challenging situation into an opportunity to set yourself up for enduring success? Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped during difficult times. We partnered with Cisco shortly after Black Monday in 1987. Google and PayPal soldiered through the aftermath of the dot-com bust. More recently, Airbnb, Square, and Stripe were founded in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. Constraints focus the mind and provide fertile ground for creativity. 2.融資。如2001年和2009年那樣，私人融資可能會大大軟化。如果在2020年和2021年證明以有吸引力的條件籌集資金困難，您會怎么做?您能否將具有挑戰(zhàn)性的情況轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)闄C(jī)會，以建立持久的成功?許多最具標(biāo)志性的公司都是在困難時期鍛造和塑造的。在1987年黑色星期一之后不久，我們與思科合作。谷歌和PayPal在網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅后幸免于難。最近，在全球金融危機(jī)中成立了Airbnb，Square和Stripe。約束使思想集中起來，為創(chuàng)造力提供了沃土。

3.Sales forecasts. Even if you don’t see any direct or immediate exposure for your company, anticipate that your customers may revise their spending habits. Deals that seemed certain may not close. The key is to not be caught flat-footed.3，銷售預(yù)測。即使您看不到公司有任何直接或直接的風(fēng)險敞口，也要預(yù)期您的客戶可能會改變他們的消費習(xí)慣。似乎確定的交易可能不會結(jié)束。關(guān)鍵是不要措手不及。

4.Marketing. With softening sales, you might find that your customer lifetime values have declined, in turn suggesting the need to rein in customer acquisition spending to maintain consistent returns on marketing spending. With greater economic and fundraising uncertainty, you might even want to consider raising the bar on ROI for marketing spend.4，營銷。隨著銷售疲軟，您可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)客戶的經(jīng)營生命周期價值下降了，這反過來表明有必要控制新客戶獲取支出，以保持一致的營銷支出回報。由于存在更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)和籌資不確定性，您甚至可能要考慮提高營銷支出的投資回報率標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

5.Headcount. Given all of the above stress points on your finances, this might be a time to evaluate critically whether you can do more with less and raise productivity.5，員工人數(shù)?？紤]到您的財務(wù)上所有上述壓力點，這可能是時候認(rèn)真評估您是否可以用更少的錢做更多的事情并提高生產(chǎn)率。

6.Capital spending. Until you have charted a course to financial independence, examine whether your capital spending plans are sensible in a more uncertain environment. Perhaps there is no reason to change plans and, for all you know, changing circumstances may even present opportunities to accelerate. But these are decisions that should be deliberate. 6，資本支出。在確定了財務(wù)獨立性的路線之前，請檢查您的資本支出計劃在更加不確定的環(huán)境中是否明智。也許沒有理由更改計劃，并且就您所知，不斷變化的情況甚至可能帶來加速的機(jī)會。但是這些決定應(yīng)該是經(jīng)過深思熟慮的。

Having weathered every business downturn for nearly fifty years, we’ve learned an important lesson — nobody ever regrets making fast and decisive adjustments to changing circumstances. In downturns, revenue and cash levels always fall faster than expenses. In some ways, business mirrors biology. As Darwin surmised, those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.”在經(jīng)歷了將近50年的每一次業(yè)務(wù)衰退之后，我們吸取了重要的教訓(xùn)-沒有人會后悔對瞬息萬變的情況做出快速而果斷的調(diào)整。在低迷時期，收入和現(xiàn)金水平的下降總是快于支出。在某些方面，業(yè)務(wù)反映了生物學(xué)。正如達(dá)爾文所推測的那樣，能生存下來的人“不是較強(qiáng)大或最聰明的人，而是最能適應(yīng)變化的人。”

A distinctive feature of enduring companies is the way their leaders react to moments like these. Your employees are all aware of COVID-19 and are wondering how you will react and what it means for them. False optimism can easily lead you astray and prevent you from making contingency plans or taking bold action. Avoid this trap by being clinically realistic and acting decisively as circumstances change. Demonstrate the leadership your team needs during this stressful time.持久公司的一個顯著特征是其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者對此類時刻做出反應(yīng)的方式。您的員工都知道COVID-19，并想知道您將如何反應(yīng)以及這對他們意味著什么。錯誤的樂觀情緒很容易使您誤入歧途，并阻止您制定應(yīng)變計劃或采取大膽的行動。通過臨床上切合實際并隨情況變化采取果斷行動來避免這種陷阱。請展示在這段緊張的時間內(nèi)您的團(tuán)隊需要的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力。

Here is some perspective from our partner Alfred Lin, who lived through another black swan moment as an operating executive:這是我們合伙人阿爾弗雷德·林(Alfred Lin)的一些觀點，他曾在另一個黑天鵝時期擔(dān)任運營主管：

“I was serving as the COO/CFO of Zappos when I was summoned to Sequoia’s office for the infamous R.I.P. Good Times presentation in 2008, prior to the financial crisis. We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face. What I can confirm is that the presentation made our team and our business stronger. Zappos emerged from the financial crisis ready to seize on opportunities after our competitors had been battered and bruised.”“當(dāng)我被召喚到紅杉辦公室聽取臭名昭著的R.I.P.(那時候我正擔(dān)任Zappos的首席運營官/首席財務(wù)官)，做2008年Good Times演講，那是在金融危機(jī)之前。那時我們不知道，就像我們現(xiàn)在不知道一樣，我們將面對多長時間，多劇烈或多緩的衰退。我可以確認(rèn)的是，這次演講使我們的團(tuán)隊和業(yè)務(wù)更加強(qiáng)大。Zappos擺脫了金融危機(jī)，準(zhǔn)備在我們的競爭對手遭受重創(chuàng)和挫折后抓住機(jī)遇。”

Stay healthy, keep your company healthy, and put a dent in the world.保持健康，使公司保持健康，并在世界上找到機(jī)會。

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