全球風(fēng)險管理專業(yè)人士協(xié)會(GARP)致力于為風(fēng)險管理?xiàng)l線上的各級人員，包括各大金融機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險從業(yè)者和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)人員提供風(fēng)險教育和最新行業(yè)資訊。金程網(wǎng)校將持續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)載“GARP Risk Intelligence”系列文章，介紹科技、企業(yè)文化與治理、能源等領(lǐng)域?qū)Σ僮黠L(fēng)險、信用風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債管理的影響。讓我們一起全面認(rèn)識風(fēng)險，防范風(fēng)險，化解風(fēng)險。
或許可以歸咎于節(jié)后綜合征，我對新一年更加悲觀：2019年在我看來似乎是幾十年來戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃風(fēng)險最大的一年。在全球范圍內(nèi)，各種宏觀風(fēng)險——包括地緣政治風(fēng)險、氣候風(fēng)險和網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全風(fēng)險——正在醞釀之中。
套用美國國防部長拉姆斯菲爾德的“經(jīng)典”言論，許多“未知的未知(unknow unknowns)”和“未知的已知(unknown knows)”風(fēng)險可能會在未來幾年內(nèi)對公司造成挑戰(zhàn)，但若能適當(dāng)處理或許也能為我們提供穩(wěn)定增長和持續(xù)繁榮的機(jī)會。在風(fēng)險波動較大的環(huán)境中，戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險規(guī)劃流程的有效性將決定公司能否駕馭風(fēng)暴，規(guī)劃新途徑，尋求新機(jī)會。
為了取得成功，董事會需要比以往任何時候都更加關(guān)注戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險，并在討論中進(jìn)行大量批判性思考。與此同時，風(fēng)險官們必須發(fā)揮更積極的作用，為這一過程提供有效的咨詢和分析。
換句話說，2019年將成為戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險年。
什么讓2019年與眾不同
The macro risks we face in 2019 for the most part are not new. What's changed is the likelihood for economic, social and political strife has increased, as have the tail risks that may result from such outcomes. To some extent, these macro risks have been accentuated by a combination of a decade of digging ourselves out from a devastating financial crisis and deferred responses over many years to emerging natural and manmade threats to society.
On the economic front, the great unwinding of quantitative easing is underway – and its effect on markets and sentiment will be telling. Most unsettling is that valuations in major sectors that have enjoyed substantial windfalls under favorable interest rate conditions (e.g., equities, real estate, fixed income and commodities) have become volatile and unsettled of late.
Likewise, as rates rise, a hangover in corporate debt looms large. Moreover, ongoing struggles to rein in large sovereign debt levels could potentially trigger events that lead to a significant market slide at some point in the near future.
Seismic geopolitical changes are among the other forces that pose similar risks to economic stability. Traditional economic and strategic alliances are in a state of flux, as exemplified by the slow-moving train wreck called Brexit.
What's more, social unrest is on the rise in Europe and in other corners of the world, as is protectionism and nationalism. (Global relationships among adversaries, while far from perfect, at least reduce the potential for major conflict by strengthening multilateral trade and economic ties.) Hitting closer to home, the rise of political polarization, brinksmanship and a “win at all costs mentality” poses serious challenges to the US for at least the next two years.
Climatological events, regardless of their source, are also increasingly affecting economic activity. Whether we're in a climatological era of our own making or one that is simply cyclical, the scale and scope of natural disasters of all kinds has been notable, with real economic consequences.
Technology has been an amplifying force in raising awareness to these macro risks, enhancing value but also raising risk levels. Social media, AI and large-scale computing applications have transformed our ability to exchange ideas and access information at a speed and scale of unimaginable levels just a decade ago.
At the same time, an explosion of technological innovations in social and financial applications presents a range of opportunities and risks. Algorithmic trading platforms, relatively unregulated fintech companies and increasingly sophisticated cyber threats require constant attention.
How can you make sense of all of these disparate factors with respect to your company's strategic risk profile?
建立一個戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險框架
The easy part of developing a strategic risk planning process is putting a list together of what macro risks keep you up at night. Assessing their likelihood and impact on your business is an entirely different matter.
An effective strategic risk assessment process requires some mapping of macro risk potential market impacts to business strategies and their associated risks and financial outcomes. Breaking down each business strategy by risk-type impact can help isolate important vulnerabilities.
For example, in 2003, if a bank's major growth strategy had been to double the share of nontraditional mortgages, an objective assessment of such a strategy's impact – not only on credit risk but also on reputational, regulatory and legal risks – might have led the bank to question whether it had the ability to take on such risks. Moreover, if that same bank had evaluated a macro-risk scenario in which a systemic crisis occurred in the next five years, it could have carefully assessed potential losses under such a severe scenario, potentially leading to a different decision and strategy on lending.
Personal biases must not influence strategic risk planning. One such bias, unfortunately, is the tendency of board and senior management to overweight near-term outcomes. This bias can wind up being short-sighted, and strategic risk planning therefore needs to consider not only coming-year effects but also what could happen five or more years down the road.
While much of the strategic risk planning process relies on soft analysis and business judgment, selection of a set of forward-looking metrics can be instrumental in assessing potential outcomes of macro risks. Depending on the nature of your business, examples of such metrics could include market-forward interest rates, consumer and social media sentiment, and shipping and inventory trends.
Another important part of the strategic risk planning exercise is assessing your company's ability to execute strategies under each macro risk scenario. For example, do you have the right number of people with the right skills? Are your processes and infrastructure adequate and sufficient for the strategy? What is the company's technology readiness with respect to strategy? Lastly, and most importantly, if lightning strikes and a macro risk triggers a tail risk event, what is the company's risk contingency plan?
一些其他思考
A host of macro risks in 2019 elevate the importance of effective strategic risk planning. To understand what strategies ultimately give your firm the best chance at enhancing long-term franchise value, management must implement a comprehensive strategic risk approach that assesses the impact of various macro risks on each strategy and each risk type.
Clifford Rossi博士是馬里蘭大學(xué)Robert H. Smith商學(xué)院的實(shí)務(wù)教授和駐校執(zhí)行官，也是切薩皮克風(fēng)險顧問公司(Chesapeake Risk Advisors, LLC)的負(fù)責(zé)人。 他擁有近25年的金融風(fēng)險管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)，曾在幾個主要銀行機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)任過多個C級高管職位。 在擔(dān)任現(xiàn)職之前，他是花旗集團(tuán)北美消費(fèi)者貸款部門的首席風(fēng)險官。
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