全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理專業(yè)人士協(xié)會(huì)(GARP)致力于為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理?xiàng)l線上的各級人員，包括各大金融機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從業(yè)者和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)人員提供風(fēng)險(xiǎn)教育和最新行業(yè)資訊。金程網(wǎng)校將持續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)載GARP Risk Intelligence系列文章，介紹科技、企業(yè)文化與治理、能源等領(lǐng)域?qū)Σ僮黠L(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債管理的影響。讓我們一起全面認(rèn)識(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
《2019年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告》描繪了一幅復(fù)雜、激烈且相互關(guān)聯(lián)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖景——其中最緊迫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是“地緣政治和地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)的緊張局勢”，以及一個(gè)顯然缺乏“解決這種緊張局勢所需的集體意愿”的世界。該報(bào)告將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為五個(gè)關(guān)鍵類別，分別是經(jīng)濟(jì)、地緣政治、社會(huì)政治、環(huán)境和科技風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并指出了13個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)趨勢。
雖然我們面臨的近期和長期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題都很復(fù)雜，但世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇年度“全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系列”的第14次報(bào)告認(rèn)為，解決方案其實(shí)相對簡單，它應(yīng)該以合作與協(xié)作為中心。
“我們從未像現(xiàn)在這樣迫切需要與各個(gè)利益相關(guān)方緊密協(xié)作，以便解決我們共同面臨的全球問題，”世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇主席博爾格.布倫德(B?rge Brende)在報(bào)告的序言中寫道。
“這是一個(gè)無與倫比時(shí)代，資源和技術(shù)取得了長足的進(jìn)步，但對于太多人，這也是一個(gè)不安全的時(shí)代，”布倫德認(rèn)為。 “我們需要新的全球化路徑來應(yīng)對這種不安全感……更新和改進(jìn)國內(nèi)和國際的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)體系架構(gòu)是我們這一代人的決定性任務(wù)。”
世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和趨勢”
The WEF and its Global Risks Perception Survey break down the global risk landscape into five key categories: economic, geopolitical, societal and political, environmental, and technological. Within those categories are a total of 30 global risks for 2019 (for example, asset bubbles and deflation under economic, and interstate conflict and terrorist attacks under geopolitical).
There are also 13 trends – “defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them” – such as aging population, changing climate, and rising cyber dependency.
Geopolitical tensions, coupled with geo-economic concerns, are viewed as the most urgent global risk. Respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey – described as “nearly 1,000 decision-makers from the public sector, private sector, academia and civil society” – saw current nationalist agendas as creating dangerous international friction. Examples are recent U.S.-China trade talks and tensions between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Trade wars, sanctions and other disruptions in business and investment relationships could have a negative impact on the global economy.
來源：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知調(diào)查。
普華永道年度CEO問卷：貿(mào)易爭端是首要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
Such concerns are rising to the top in other benchmark surveys. In PwC's 22nd annual Global CEO Survey – released, like Global Risks 2019, just ahead of the WEF's January Davos gathering – trade conflicts, policy uncertainty, and protectionism replaced terrorism, climate change, and increasing tax burden on the list of top 10 threats to growth.
Of PwC's responding CEOs “extremely concerned” about trade conflicts, 88% were specifically uneasy about that between China and the U.S.; 98% of U.S. CEOs and 90% of China's CEOs voiced these concerns.
The more than 1,300 survey participants turned significantly more pessimistic about the economy this year, with nearly 30% expecting a decline in global growth, versus 5% in 2018. Still, 42% see an improved economic outlook, though that is down from 57% a year ago.
Political and security risk consulting firm Control Risks, in its RiskMap 2019 forecast, placed “U.S.-China trade rift foretells a new global order” as No. 1 among its top five risksfor this year. “This antagonistic relationship will complicate life not only for businesses in China and the U.S.,” the firm said. “Companies in a wide orbit around this standoff will feel the political and economic impact.”
最可能發(fā)生和影響最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
John Drzik, president of global risk and digital at Marsh, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Companies, which is a WEF report partner, says, “As a result of these tensions, companies are being increasingly pulled into the ring of political wrangling. To a degree that we have not seen in modern times, they find themselves in the crosshairs of politicians.” This creates a demanding and volatile business environment and puts pressure on profitability.
The WEF report lists five risks as most likely to occur: extreme weather events; failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; natural disasters; data fraud and theft; and cyber attacks.
The top five in terms of impact: weapons of mass destruction; failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; extreme weather events; water crises; and natural disasters.
“Asset bubbles in a major economy” ranked 10th in likelihood but was not in the top 10 in impact.
對商業(yè)公司的意義何在?
Brian Elowe, Marsh's chief client officer for North America, says that these global risks have important risk management implications for businesses.
One is the need to address the impact of multiple environmental risks. This will require companies to create greater resilience in their organizations and supply chains and to become more adept at anticipating resource shortages around the globe. “Companies can no longer avoid the implications of climate risk,” he says.
In “Climate Change Challenges for Central Banks and Financial Regulators,” a paper published last year in Nature Climate Change, Emanuele Campiglio and co-authors explored the relationship between climate change and the stability of the financial system.
Another implication, Elowe says, is the need to anticipate massive cyberattacks, some of which may be state-sponsored. Companies will need to focus on the vulnerabilities and resiliency of their infrastructure as well as those of their supply chain and value chain, he says.
“There is certainly a rising concern about targeted attacks on organizations and the impact of new technologies such as artificial intelligence in creating new vulnerabilities,” or as an accelerant to a cyber attack, Elowe adds.
政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需引起重視
A third important risk management consideration is the challenging political and economic environment, coupled with what Elowe calls “headwinds in the global economy that will put pressure on corporate strategies and investments.” It will therefore become increasingly difficult to thrive with existing business models, or to successfully scale up such models in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty.
Elowe believes political activism will be part of the collaborative solution: “Companies will have to get more involved in the political infrastructure and help to influence policies. Companies can no longer stand back” from politics. “We see the need for companies to try to influence political collaboration across geographies.”
Businesses will also have to assess emerging risks and be aware of how their current risk profiles may be changing in light of technological advances, political developments and environmental concerns.
“Firms need to be thinking about where they are placing their assets and manufacturing plants, what is their access to resources in the event of an environmental disaster, and what are the potential vulnerabilities in their supply chains,” Elowe says. And they should not limit their thinking – or risk management resources – to what risks can be mitigated or eliminated. “They will need to spend more time and thought around the resiliencies of their business and have more agile responses in place when an unexpected event occurs.”
對未來沖擊做好準(zhǔn)備
A section of the WEF report is devoted to consideration of future shocks or scenarios that have the potential to play out and cause cascading risks. The potential scenarios include: monetary populism, in which escalating protectionist impulses call into question the independence and authority of central banks; powerful quantum computing that renders cryptography and cyber protections obsolete; and the use of weather manipulation tools to stoke geopolitical tensions.
Drzik of Marsh says that the WEF report highlights how “leaders need to flex their business models, risk management processes, and corporate culture if they are to flourish in this environment.”
The Global Risks report was produced with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group as strategic partners. National University of Singapore, the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, and the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania, are academic advisers.
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